IRMO Brief 07/2023 - Unresolved Conflict in the Shadow of Ukraine War: Is South Caucasus Coming Closer to a Lasting Peace?

The Second Karabakh War, which was ended by a ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020, reshaped the geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus, with resounding effect felt in Europe and the Middle East. The breakaway region of Karabakh, also known as Nagorno- Karabakh especially during the Soviet times (hence the Russian attributive adjective “nagorny”), had also gone through a war between 1988 and 1994.

In this First Karabakh War, the Armenian forces had prevailed, thus gaining control over Karabakh, a historical region within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan with mixed Armenian and Azerbaijani population. Furthermore, Armenia had also gained control over the nearby districts standing between Karabakh and the Republic of Armenia by the end of the First War.