IRMO Brief 03/2023 - Pragmatism through Earthquake Diplomacy

The earthquakes that shook millions of lives in southern Türkiye and reduced some cities to rubble have prompted a worldwide outpouring of humanitarian support and assistance to the region. The country’s longstanding antagonists were among the first to appear on the scene with search and rescue teams, truckloads of aid and other humanitarian assistance. Whether Armenia, the Nordic states, Greece or Israel, none hesitated to set aside political disputes and historical animosities to issue statements of compassion and solidarity in support of Ankara.

Yet as search and rescue operations have already ended, what will happen to the political disputes set aside in a moment of shared humanity? Is it reasonable to expect
a de-escalation of longstanding tensions following a large-scale calamity? Will the region see another stage of “earthquake diplomacy” similar to 1999 when disasters which hit Izmit and later Athens led to a measure of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations before descending once more into mutual hostility? Before last month’s earthquakes, Ankara was facing difficulties on a range of issues.

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